o3,Gemini 2.5 and Beyond: Building Moats Amid AGI Uncertainty
The AGI debate is raging with no clear consensus on what constitutes artificial general intelligence. This article explores strategies to build lasting value in an unmeasurable AI era.
Multiple high-profile AI releases last week sparked an intense debate, particularly OpenAI's o3 model.
The argument about whether we've achieved artificial general intelligence (AGI) has grown heated, with George Mason University Economics Professor Tyler Cowen writing that April 16, 2025, should be considered "AGI Day." Meanwhile, research lab Transluce published findings showing significant flaws in these models, including a notable tendency to fabricate actions and justify them when confronted.
The AGI debate has raged for years, with no clear consensus on how to define it. Is it the ability to match human performance across all cognitive tasks? Or is it something more nuanced?
My stake in this debate is not to determine whether o3 constitutes AGI, but rather to explore what the potential arrival of AGI means for investors and companies navigating this technological Discontinuity. The absence of a clear definition or a timeline cannot be an excuse for inaction.…