About the author
Raphaëlle d’Ornano is the founder of Decoding Discontinuity and the architect of the frameworks presented in this manifesto.
She decodes AI as a discontinuity, a structural break that resets competitive rules and value capture across tech and non-tech industries rather than simply shifting existing curves. Her work begins at the point where the conventional analytical tools built to navigate the last regime become obstacles to surviving the next one.
Her frameworks include the Architectural Resilience Assessment Framework (ARAF™) and the Durable Growth Moat™. They explain why value migrates to coordination layers as AI agents become autonomous actors and identify which companies will make the crossing and which will not.
ARAFTM is the first rigorous, investable framework built for the agentic transition. This scoring system measures orchestration potential against displacement risk and separates the companies that will control the coordination layer from those that will be repriced by it.
These frameworks serve as the analytical engine for a market-neutral fund she is incubating, going long on companies navigating the discontinuity and shorting those that land on the wrong side of it.
Before founding Decoding Discontinuity, Raphaëlle spent more than a decade building an international financial analysis and strategic advisory firm, working with institutional investors and executive teams across venture capital, growth, and private equity on technology-driven transitions. She developed a distinct analytical approach that relied on pattern recognition across hundreds of transactions to assess moat durability. This methodology gave her the early conviction that the arrival of generative AI was not another cycle to be measured with existing tools, but a discontinuity that would render them obsolete.
She began publishing that thesis in 2023 before the vocabulary of orchestration and agentic systems had entered mainstream investment discourse. Decoding Discontinuity has since become one of Substack’s leading technology publications. The AGNT podcast extends the research into long-form dialogue with the researchers, operators, and allocators at the center of the transition.
