King Sam and AI Circularity: How Concentrated Bets on OpenAI Create Systemic Risk

Vendor financing in infrastructure is normal. The scale and concentration in AI are unprecedented. So is the dependence on one actor’s durable growth moat.

Image by Allison Saeng via Unsplash

Hundreds of billions in AI infrastructure financing now flows through circular deals where customers are suppliers, suppliers are investors, and all roads lead to OpenAI. The greatest risk isn’t that AI fails—it’s that the technology succeeds while the single company everyone has backed fails to build a defensible moat, triggering contagion that strands capital and stalls the buildout before the transformation completes. You can be bullish on AI and bearish on this financial architecture. They’re separable propositions.