Decoding Discontinuity

Decoding Discontinuity

The Open-Source Inflection Point: Why Kimi K2 Thinking Changes Everything About AI's Competitive Dynamics. Again.

Kimi K2 Thinking beats the frontier for a fraction of the cost. What’s next for the future of LLMs.

Raphaëlle d'Ornano's avatar
Raphaëlle d'Ornano
Nov 18, 2025
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Photo by Omar:. Lopez-Rincon via Unsplash

Kimi K2 Thinking marks a pivotal inflection point in AI’s evolution. It’s the first open-source model to reach and surpass the performance frontier of proprietary systems like GPT-5 and Claude Sonnet 4.5 in reasoning and agentic capabilities. At just $4.6 million for training (non-official numbers), it achieved that performance at just a fraction of their cost. Open source is catching up fast, and so is China, but at very different economics. If this pace holds, next year’s leaderboard will look very different.

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