Decoding Discontinuity
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The Open-Source Inflection Point: Why Kimi K2 Thinking Changes Everything About AI's Competitive Dynamics. Again.
Kimi K2 Thinking beats the frontier for a fraction of the cost. What’s next for the future of LLMs.
Nov 18
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Raphaëlle d'Ornano
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4
Crazier Than Elon’s 6X Tesla Bet: Why Non-Tech Giants Might Be AI’s Real Valuation Dark Horses
How overlooked non-tech titans - over 420 S&P 500 companies and beyond - can harness Agentic AI for transformative gains, and unlock value. New CMU…
Nov 12
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Raphaëlle d'Ornano
9
3
The Orchestration Discontinuity: Decoding Big Tech’s $400B AI Infrastructure Bet
The capex surge announced by Meta, Google, Amazon, and Microsoft represents a premium to win the Agentic future. The 'Three Layers of AI Value Capture…
Nov 4
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Raphaëlle d'Ornano
4
3
October 2025
Second Law of Value in the Agentic Era: Context is the New Moat
Why memory architecture, context depth, and data defensibility determine who captures value.
Oct 28
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Raphaëlle d'Ornano
13
3
First Law of Value in the Agentic Era: Proximity to User Intent
Part 1 explores how competitive advantage shifts from owning systems of record to capturing where intent begins and orchestrating work from there. At…
Oct 21
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Raphaëlle d'Ornano
22
3
King Sam and AI Circularity: How Concentrated Bets on OpenAI Create Systemic Risk
Vendor financing in infrastructure is normal. The scale and concentration in AI are unprecedented. So is the dependence on one actor’s durable growth…
Oct 14
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Raphaëlle d'Ornano
17
4
Fermi's $16B Question: When Regulatory Arbitrage Meets AI Bubble Dynamics
Fermi raised $683M to build nuclear power for AI data centers. Our 31-page in-depth teardown applies the Durable Moat Growth methodology to separate…
Oct 7
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Raphaëlle d'Ornano
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2
September 2025
The Inference Economy: The Missing $800 Billion Isn't Missing
Why orchestration revenue from labor market capture will generate trillion-dollar infrastructure returns.
Sep 30
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Raphaëlle d'Ornano
13
1
Two Tales of Compute: The Battle for AI's Operational Future (Part 2)
Training compute sets the frontier, but inference compute determines profitability. In Part 2, I examine efficiency breakthroughs, vertical…
Sep 24
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Raphaëlle d'Ornano
11
Two Tales of Compute: Decoding AI Infrastructure’s New Economics (Part 1)
AI's compute demands are driving a precarious $7TN infrastructure buildout. In Part 1, I examine the context and the soaring capital expenditures for…
Sep 23
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Raphaëlle d'Ornano
11
1
3
The AI Multiplier: Why the Market is Correct on the Bubble and Still Missing the Discontinuity
Bubble Burst or Breakthrough? Navigating Agentic AI's Value Multiplier Amid Public Market Froth
Sep 16
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Raphaëlle d'Ornano
12
5
OpenAI Jobs: The Beachhead for a Super AI Assistant
Unbundling Workflows, Re-bundling Habits. Why This Could Be OpenAI's Moat Moment.
Sep 9
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Raphaëlle d'Ornano
14
1
3
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