Decoding Discontinuity

MiniMax IPO: What China LLM Reveals About the Economics of Intelligence

Our S-1 teardown applies the Durable Growth Moat methodology to this landmark public offering.

7 hrs ago • Raphaëlle d'Ornano

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December 2025

Messaging to Orchestration: The Real 'Intent' Behind Meta’s $2 Billion Manus Deal

In the Agentic Era, winning at the orchestration layer is crucial. The acquisition of the Singapore startup reveals where Meta sees its vulnerability…

Dec 30, 2025 • Raphaëlle d'Ornano

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The 80% Rule: Who Captures Value When AI Does the Work

Google Research just showed that centralized orchestration of agentic systems drives 80% higher AI performance. Translated into dollars, we get a first…

Dec 16, 2025 • Raphaëlle d'Ornano

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Reading the Tea Leaves: What AI Capital Intensity Actually Reveals

As AI capex soars, the real signal isn't how much firms spend but what they buy. I map out 3 scenarios for AI compute by 2027: inference dominance…

Dec 9, 2025 • Raphaëlle d'Ornano

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Three Years In: GenAI's Discontinuity Proven in Silicon, Unproven in Revenue

How the market's split verdict reveals we're exactly where discontinuities always pause before their exponential phase.

Dec 2, 2025 • Raphaëlle d'Ornano

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November 2025

Gemini 3 AI Discontinuity: Decoding Google's Full-Stack Threat to OpenAI and NVIDIA

The winner won't be determined by the benchmarks but rather by who controls the full stack, from the chips to the model to the distribution.

Nov 25, 2025 • Raphaëlle d'Ornano

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The Open-Source Inflection Point: Why Kimi K2 Thinking Changes Everything About AI's Competitive Dynamics. Again.

Kimi K2 Thinking beats the frontier for a fraction of the cost. What’s next for the future of LLMs.

Nov 18, 2025 • Raphaëlle d'Ornano

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Crazier Than Elon’s 6X Tesla Bet: Why Non-Tech Giants Might Be AI’s Real Valuation Dark Horses

How overlooked non-tech titans - over 420 S&P 500 companies and beyond - can harness Agentic AI for transformative gains, and unlock value. New CMU…

Nov 12, 2025 • Raphaëlle d'Ornano

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The Orchestration Discontinuity: Decoding Big Tech’s $400B AI Infrastructure Bet

The capex surge announced by Meta, Google, Amazon, and Microsoft represents a premium to win the Agentic future. The 'Three Layers of AI Value Capture…

Nov 4, 2025 • Raphaëlle d'Ornano

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October 2025

Second Law of Value in the Agentic Era: Context is the New Moat

Why memory architecture, context depth, and data defensibility determine who captures value.

Oct 28, 2025 • Raphaëlle d'Ornano

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First Law of Value in the Agentic Era: Proximity to User Intent

Part 1 explores how competitive advantage shifts from owning systems of record to capturing where intent begins and orchestrating work from there. At…

Oct 21, 2025 • Raphaëlle d'Ornano

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King Sam and AI Circularity: How Concentrated Bets on OpenAI Create Systemic Risk

Vendor financing in infrastructure is normal. The scale and concentration in AI are unprecedented. So is the dependence on one actor’s durable growth…

Oct 14, 2025 • Raphaëlle d'Ornano

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