Decoding Discontinuity

Decoding Discontinuity

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GPT-5's Reinforcement Learning Gambit: The Discontinuity That Wasn't (But Should Have Been)
OpenAI bet that advanced training and unified architecture could overcome ecosystem advantages, but execution challenges proved market dynamics trump…
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Raphaëlle d'Ornano
GPT-5's Mixed Debut: How the Coding Wedge is Reshaping AI's Orchestration Battle
Key Lessons from OpenAI's GPT-5 Launch, the Windsurf Deal Fallout, and the Agentic Era Competition
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Raphaëlle d'Ornano
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10 Days Later: Is Figma Worth the Price?
A SaaS 2.0 artifact priced as if it already controls the AI futur.
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Raphaëlle d'Ornano
The 11% Paradox - Why Orchestration Lock-In is Rewriting AI's Rules
Agentic Era Part 1 Revisited: How Mid-Year Data Supercharges Our Orchestration Thesis into a Lock-In Revolution
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Raphaëlle d'Ornano

July 2025

Compute Access: The Single Point of Failure Redefining Strategic Advantage
How compute scarcity is reshaping AI's future—and why it's the ultimate bottleneck.
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Raphaëlle d'Ornano
Thinking Machines and the Second Wave: Why $2B Says Everything About AI's Future
Will Mira Murati's Thinking Machines eclipse OpenAI and spark the next wave of AI reasoning innovation?
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Raphaëlle d'Ornano
The Agentic Resistance: Why Critics Are Missing the Paradigm Shift
A restrospective on Project Vend-1: How Thomas Kuhn's framework explains why institutional skepticism of agentic AI reflects predictable paradigm…
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Raphaëlle d'Ornano
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Figma’s $20B IPO Tests SaaS in Agentic Era
Figma’s valuation assumes AI mastery its S-1 doesn’t prove. This disconnect reveals critical lessons about Agentic Era Discontinuity.
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Raphaëlle d'Ornano
The Salesforce Paradox: Slowing Growth Masks $1T Agentic Opportunity
By 2030, agentic systems could replace 30% of white-collar jobs, and Salesforce is wanting to lead this shift. Salesforce's early lead is meaningful but…
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Raphaëlle d'Ornano

June 2025

Beyond Coatue's Fantastic 40: Why Architectural Resilience Trumps Growth Projections in the Agentic Era
Introducing the Agentic Resilience Assessment Framework: In Defense of Google, Apple, Visa and Disney
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Raphaëlle d'Ornano
Sovereign AI: The Infrastructure Play Redefining AI Valuations
Why the right comparison for Mistral is not OpenAI but Palantir meets CoreWeave.
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Raphaëlle d'Ornano
The Agentic Era Part 5: Building the Agentic Cloud
Why the current cloud infrastructure is ill-suited for agentic systems and requires a new "agentic-native" approach.
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Raphaëlle d'Ornano
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