Archive - Decoding Discontinuity

Part III — Figma's Orchestration Play: How MCP Network Effects Rewrite Software Defensibility

Act III of the SaaS Reckoning: The tools that plug into the loop won't just survive. They'll compound.

14 hrs ago • Raphaëlle d'Ornano

The Excellent Tool Trap: Why Palantir’s $318B Valuation Tests the Laws of Value in the Agentic Era

Palantir’s context moat is real. But orchestration is the prize. As OpenAI's Frontier and Claude Cowork climb the stack, the market’s biggest mistake…

Feb 19 • Raphaëlle d'Ornano

Part II — Decoding Anthropic’s $380 Billion Valuation: Orchestration over Raw Intelligence in Enterprise AI

How AI Labs are pivoting from models to platforms, and what It means for the Enterprise AI race.

Feb 17 • Raphaëlle d'Ornano

Part I — The $285 Billion 'SaaSpocalypse' Is the Wrong Panic

AI labs aren’t winning by intelligence alone, SaaS isn’t dying, and the real battle is over who becomes the system of action in the agentic enterprise…

Feb 10 • Raphaëlle d'Ornano

The Moltbook Discontinuity: Swarms, Theater, and the Inference Economy

A viral agent-only social network reveals not emergent intelligence, but autonomous swarms operating at machine speed, generating real inference demand…

Feb 3 • Raphaëlle d'Ornano

January 2026

OpenAI and xAI: When Megawatts Become the New ARPU

OpenAI’s CFO handed the AI industry its first industrial metric in advance of an anticipated IPO. Ironically, if it holds, the equation favors xAI and…

Jan 27 • Raphaëlle d'Ornano

Claude Cowork and the Enterprise Software Sorting

Assessing the Claude Cowork discontinuity, what it reveals about the agentic paradigm, and the real blast radius for enterprise software.

Jan 20 • Raphaëlle d'Ornano

Beyond the Power Crunch: Why Meta's Nuclear Gambit Risks Stranded Assets in the AI Race

Examining the real bottlenecks in AI scaling and the perils of pre-financing unproven energy startups amid rapid efficiency gains.

Jan 13 • Raphaëlle d'Ornano

MiniMax IPO: What China LLM Reveals About the Economics of Intelligence

Our S-1 teardown applies the Durable Growth Moat methodology to this landmark public offering.

Jan 6 • Raphaëlle d'Ornano

December 2025

Messaging to Orchestration: The Real 'Intent' Behind Meta’s $2 Billion Manus Deal

In the Agentic Era, winning at the orchestration layer is crucial. The acquisition of the Singapore startup reveals where Meta sees its vulnerability…

Dec 30, 2025 • Raphaëlle d'Ornano

The 80% Rule: Who Captures Value When AI Does the Work

Google Research just showed that centralized orchestration of agentic systems drives 80% higher AI performance. Translated into dollars, we get a first…

Dec 16, 2025 • Raphaëlle d'Ornano

Reading the Tea Leaves: What AI Capital Intensity Actually Reveals

As AI capex soars, the real signal isn't how much firms spend but what they buy. I map out 3 scenarios for AI compute by 2027: inference dominance…

Dec 9, 2025 • Raphaëlle d'Ornano

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