Decoding Discontinuity

Decoding Discontinuity

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September 2025

The Inference Economy: The Missing $800 Billion Isn't Missing
Why orchestration revenue from labor market capture will generate trillion-dollar infrastructure returns.
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Raphaëlle d'Ornano
Two Tales of Compute: The Battle for AI's Operational Future (Part 2)
Training compute sets the frontier, but inference compute determines profitability. In Part 2, I examine efficiency breakthroughs, vertical…
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Raphaëlle d'Ornano
Two Tales of Compute: Decoding AI Infrastructure’s New Economics (Part 1)
AI's compute demands are driving a precarious $7TN infrastructure buildout. In Part 1, I examine the context and the soaring capital expenditures for…
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Raphaëlle d'Ornano
1
The AI Multiplier: Why the Market is Correct on the Bubble and Still Missing the Discontinuity
Bubble Burst or Breakthrough? Navigating Agentic AI's Value Multiplier Amid Public Market Froth
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Raphaëlle d'Ornano
OpenAI Jobs: The Beachhead for a Super AI Assistant
Unbundling Workflows, Re-bundling Habits. Why This Could Be OpenAI's Moat Moment.
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Raphaëlle d'Ornano
1
Memento: The Memory Architecture Ushering in AI's Agentic Discontinuity
The birth of "execution data" as a new strategic asset in the Agentic Era.
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Raphaëlle d'Ornano
1

August 2025

The Great Convergence: Chinese Open-Source AI is Rewriting the Rules of Digital Supremacy
DeepSeek V3.1 delivers ~90% of GPT-5's intelligence at 1-2% of the cost. And Qwen-Image-Edit beats GPT Image on image editing benchmarks.
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Raphaëlle d'Ornano
GPT-5's Reinforcement Learning Gambit: The Discontinuity That Wasn't (But Should Have Been)
OpenAI bet that advanced training and unified architecture could overcome ecosystem advantages, but execution challenges proved market dynamics trump…
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Raphaëlle d'Ornano
GPT-5's Mixed Debut: How the Coding Wedge is Reshaping AI's Orchestration Battle
Key Lessons from OpenAI's GPT-5 Launch, the Windsurf Deal Fallout, and the Agentic Era Competition
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Raphaëlle d'Ornano
1
10 Days Later: Is Figma Worth the Price?
A SaaS 2.0 artifact priced as if it already controls the AI futur.
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Raphaëlle d'Ornano
The 11% Paradox - Why Orchestration Lock-In is Rewriting AI's Rules
Agentic Era Part 1 Revisited: How Mid-Year Data Supercharges Our Orchestration Thesis into a Lock-In Revolution
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Raphaëlle d'Ornano
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